Forecast vs. target: why pace is measured in working days
Halfway through the month is not halfway through the work. How expected-to-date, projection and required pace are calculated, and what commit and best case mean.
In short
- Attainment is compared with what should have been won by today, not with the full monthly target.
- NG CRM calculates expected-to-date in working days, excluding weekends and public holidays.
- The forecast follows an opportunity's expected close date, not its entry date.
- Commit is either the category on the opportunity or a probability above the company threshold, 70% by default.
- Changing a target creates a new effective-dated row, so past months are not recalculated.
Short answer: target attainment should be compared with what should have been won by today, not with the full monthly target. NG CRM calculates that “expected to date” in working days, excluding weekends and public holidays, so the middle of the month does not look worse than it is. Two more figures sit next to it: a projection to month-end at the current pace, and the amount needed per remaining working day.
Three numbers that answer “are we on track”
- Expected to date = target × elapsed working days ÷ total working days in the month.
- Projection = won ÷ elapsed working days × total working days.
- Needed per remaining day = (target − won) ÷ remaining working days.
The server calculates every figure from the same source the sales cockpit, dashboards and NG Copilot read from. Screens only display them, so two screens cannot disagree.
Example: one month, two stories
The numbers are round and made up, purely to show the arithmetic. The monthly target is 3,000,000 RSD, and the month has 30 calendar days and 21 working days. After the 14th the team has 9 working days behind it (two weekends and one public holiday), and has won 1,200,000 RSD.
| Measured by | Expected to date | Gap to won |
|---|---|---|
| Calendar days (14 of 30) | 1,400,000 RSD | −200,000 RSD |
| Working days (9 of 21) | 1,285,714 RSD | −85,714 RSD |
The calendar view shows a gap more than twice as large as the real one. Working days say the difference is small. The projection at the current pace is 1,200,000 ÷ 9 × 21 = 2,800,000 RSD. The team still needs 1,800,000 RSD over 12 remaining working days — 150,000 RSD a day. That is a concrete number for the morning meeting, instead of a vague “we need to push harder”.
What goes into the forecast
The NG CRM forecast follows an opportunity's expected close date, not its entry date: “this month” means business you expect to close this month. Every open opportunity carries a category: Pipeline, Best case, Commit or Excluded from forecast.
- Commit is an opportunity in that category, or one whose probability has reached the company threshold — 70% by default. The sales manager sets the threshold.
- Best case is commit plus opportunities in the best-case category.
- Won is counted by close date, in the legal entity's currency, at the exchange rate of the day it was won.
Six figures sit at the top of the screen: won, commit, best case, pipeline, target and the amount still missing. Once the target is exceeded, the last figure says by how much — the gap is never negative.
Targets change, history stays
Targets change mid-year: a rebalance, a new rep, a split territory. In NG CRM a change writes a new row with an effective date, and the old one stays on record. September therefore does not get a different percentage after an October rebalance.
Two rules prevent false zeros. No target is not 0% — attainment simply stays empty. A month that has not started is not measured, because 0% would look like a missed target.
Forecasts and targets are covered on the Sales page. The ready-made dashboard with won, target and pace is described on the Analytics page.
Frequently asked questions
Why measure pace in working days rather than calendar days?
Because deals close on working days. Calendar-based pacing counts weekends and holidays as selling days, so the middle of the month looks worse than it is.
What does “commit” mean in the forecast?
An opportunity in the Commit category, or one whose probability has reached the company threshold, which is 70% by default and set by the sales manager.
What does the forecast show when no target is set?
Attainment stays empty rather than showing 0%. No target is not the same as a target of zero.
Are past months recalculated when I change a target?
No. A change writes a new row with an effective date and the old one stays in the history, so past periods are measured against the target that applied then.
Want to see how this looks in NG CRM?
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